After losing to the Saints twice in the regular season, the Bucs got the ultimate revenge as they defeated them 30-20 last week in New Orleans. The Bucs defence had Drew Brees’ number with 3 interceptions on the day and Tom Brady didn’t have to dominate. He tossed 2 touchdown passes and Tampa’s running game between Fournette and Ronald Jones was hard to stop.
So the Bucs now head to the Green Bay for a spot in the Super Bowl for the first time since 2003 and Brady is no stranger to cold playoff games.
Meanwhile, the Packers outlased the Rams 32-18 at Lambeau Field. In a tough matchup against the Rams defence, the Packers offence was its usual dominate self. Aaron Rodgers continued his fine season with 2 touchdown passes and 296 passing yards. Aaron Jones ripped through the Rams defence with a huge 60 yard run and finished with 99 yards on 14 carries. Allen Lazard caught an important touchdown in the 4th quarter and Davante Adams caught 9 of 10 targets against a tough Rams passing defence.
While on defence, the Packers sacked Jared Goff 4 times and that’s going to be the key against Brady in the pocket. But they did struggle to stop Cam Akers in the running game and that is one of the few weak areas in this Packers defence.
Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady in a playoff game should be epic to watch. Looking back to the first meeting of the season, Rodgers had arguably his worst performance of the season as he threw 2 picks and was sacked 4 times. Rodgers is a competitive beast and he’ll be looking to avenge that 38-10 defeat.
There’s also huge motivation for Brady as he looks to prove the doubters wrong (once again) as he looks to end the Bucs Super Bowl drought and also earn a home Super Bowl berth.
Ulimately, we have the two best teams in the NFC going to battle and as a result, this should be a high scoring affair. The Packers last 3 games have gone Over the total and the Bucs are 5-2 against the Over in road games.
Green Bay holds a 5-0 record at home in their last 5. The Bucs have a horrible record at this venue with just 1 win in 16 attempts.
Head to Head Record
Tampa Bay smashed the Packers 38-10 in mid-October. Since 2001, the head to head record is split at 5-5 in the last 10 meetings.
The Bills are just one win away from their first Super Bowl appearance since 1994 after a huge defensive effort in their 17-3 win over Baltimore. They rattled Lamar Jackson for 3 sacks and an interception as the Ravens couldn’t get their offence going all game.
While on the other side of the ball, the Bills went with a heavy passing attack and put their trust in QB Josh Allen. He continued his strong combination with Stefon Diggs (8 catches, 106 yards, 1 td catch) and John Brown made 8 catches as well. They may look to run the ball a bit more against an average Chiefs defence and this Bills offence is proving hard to stop.
For the Chiefs, they held on to beat the Browns 22-17 as Patrick Mahomes was knocked out of the game with concussion. His status for this matchup is liking a 50/50 at the moment but the Chiefs will be doing everything they can to get their young superstar out there. If he can’t play, backup QB Chad Henne will be the starter and he threw a pick in limited action. So the Bills defence will be a tough challenge.
The key will be getting the ball to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in the passing game after the pair both caught over 100 receiving yards in the victory over the Browns.
Ultimately, the uncertain status of Patty Mahomes makes this a tough game to bet on. But if Mahomes can’t play, the Bills will certainly be favourites and we wouldn’t back against their form despite playing a road playoff game in Kansas City.
So we like the chances of the Stefon Diggs/Josh Allen combination continuing here. Diggs has a caught a touchdown pass in both playoff games thus far and the Chiefs don’t have the best pass defence in the league. He also caught a TD in the earlier meeting with the Chiefs this season.
Kansas City holds a 14-2 home record in their last 16 games. The Bills have a nice 4-2 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Chiefs beat the Bills in mid-October 26-17. Since 2008, the two sides have won 5 games against each other.
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